Iran’s strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical oil chokepoint—has long been a cornerstone of its geopolitical influence. In 2025, as tensions with the U.S. escalate following former President Donald Trump’s renewed threats to seize Iranian oil tankers, Tehran has once again leveraged its historical playbook to assert its sovereignty and safeguard its interests. This article explores Iran’s strategic advantages, historical context, and the broader benefits of its Hormuz strategy.
Historical Context: Iran’s Mastery of the Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz is deeply rooted in history, serving as both a defensive and retaliatory tool against external pressures. Key milestones include:
- 1971 Shah (King) Era: The Shah seized Abu Musa and the Tunbs islands, declaring, “Whoever holds the reefs of Hormuz can stop the wheels of all the world.” This marked the beginning of Iran’s naval dominance in the region.
- 1980s Iran-Iraq War: Ayatollah Khomeini’s regime threatened to close the strait in response to U.S. sanctions and Iraqi attacks, showcasing its ability to disrupt global oil flows.
- 2012–2020: Under U.S. sanctions, Iran mined the strait, seized tankers, and warned of “cutting off the West’s oil artery,” reinforcing its deterrent capabilities.
2025 Escalation: Iran’s Strategic Response to U.S. Pressure
In 2025, Trump’s renewed sanctions and threats to intercept Iranian oil tankers have prompted Tehran to adopt a multi-faceted response:
Military Posturing
- Deployment of swarm boats, submarines, and advanced anti-ship missiles (e.g., Ghadir-class subs, Khalij Fars ballistic missiles) near the strait.
- Strengthening coastal defenses and fortifying key islands like Abu Musa and the Tunbs.
Diplomatic Warnings
- Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared, “Closing Hormuz is Iran’s sovereign right if America continues its piracy.”
- President Ebrahim Raisi emphasized, “We will not let $1 of oil flow if ours cannot,” highlighting Iran’s resolve.
Asymmetric Tactics
- Cyber Warfare: Suspected Iranian hackers targeted Saudi Aramco’s systems in March 2025, showcasing Iran’s ability to disrupt regional energy infrastructure.
- Naval Mines and Drone Swarms: Iran’s stockpile of “smart” mines and UAVs like the Shahed-136 pose significant threats to shipping and military assets.
Iran Conducts Military Drill Simulating Attack on U.S. Navy Aircraft Carrier in Persian Gulf
Why the Strait of Hormuz Benefits Iran
Iran’s control over the strait provides several strategic advantages:
Economic Leverage
- Oil Traffic: 21 million barrels per day (21% of global supply) pass through Hormuz, making it a vital artery for global energy markets.
- Sanctions Mitigation: By threatening closures, Iran pressures the West to ease sanctions, ensuring its oil revenues remain intact.
Geopolitical Influence
- Regional Power Projection: Iran’s ability to disrupt Hormuz traffic strengthens its negotiating position in regional and international forums.
- Alliance Building: China and Russia have backed Iran at the UN, with Beijing offering to insure Hormuz-bound tankers, deepening Iran’s strategic partnerships.
Deterrence Against Aggression
- Iran’s military capabilities in the strait serve as a deterrent against U.S. and allied military actions, ensuring regime security.
Global Implications of Iran’s Hormuz Strategy
A potential Hormuz blockade would have far-reaching consequences:
Economic Fallout
- Oil Price Surge: A loss of 7 million bpd could spike Brent crude to $213/barrel, triggering global economic instability.
- Recession Risk: Analysts warn of a 2.5% drop in global GDP, reminiscent of the 1973 oil crisis.
International Reactions
- EU: Accelerating renewable energy plans while urging restraint to avoid economic shocks.
- China/Russia: Supporting Iran diplomatically and economically, with China conducting joint naval drills in 2024.
- Gulf States: Expanding desalination plants and strategic oil reserves to mitigate risks.
Expert Analysis: Will Iran Follow Through?
- Yes, If Cornered: Former CIA analyst Reuel Marc Gerecht notes, “Iran closes Hormuz only if regime survival is at stake.”
- No, Due to Self-Interest: Energy economist Robin Mills argues, “Iran needs $70/bbl oil to fund its budget; blocking exports would bankrupt Tehran.”
The Bottom Line
Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz remains a powerful tool in its geopolitical arsenal. While Trump’s threats have reignited tensions, Iran’s strategic calculations are guided by its need for economic stability and regional influence. However, the risk of miscalculations—such as a sunk tanker or cyberattack—could escalate into a regional conflict, with oil prices soaring past $350/barrel.