The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical energy corridor. If it were shut down for one month due to a major regional war, the economic and political shockwaves would be felt from global gas stations to the highest levels of international diplomacy. While Persian Gulf nations have financial reserves to survive one month, such an event would expose the deep vulnerability of the global economy and cast serious doubt on their ability to fulfill massive, long-term international investment deals.
The Core Scenario: A One-Month Blockade
Let’s assume a severe crisis—like a direct conflict between Israe.l and Iran spilling into the Persian Gulf—halts commercial tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for 30 days. Insurance rates would become prohibitively high, and military risks would make passage unacceptable. While some oil could be rerouted via pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, these alternatives can only handle a fraction of the normal flow. For this period, the world would lose access to a significant portion of its daily oil supply.
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The Immediate Financial Blow: Lost Revenue
Normally, about 20 million barrels of oil and refined fuels pass through the strait daily. A closure would mean most of that oil cannot reach the market.
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Global Lost Oil Revenue (30 days): Approximately $36 to $48 billion worth of oil exports would not happen.
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Qatar’s Lost LNG Revenue: As the world’s top exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which also transits the strait, Qatar would lose roughly $5 to $6 billion in a month.
For the United States’ key Persian Gulf partners, the direct hit to their national incomes would be severe:
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Saudi Arabia: Could lose around $7.2 billion in unshipped crude oil revenue.
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United Arab Emirates (UAE): Could lose around $4.8 billion.
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Qatar: Could lose around $5 billion in LNG revenue.
Combined, these three nations alone could forfeit about $17 billion in one month—money that was earmarked for national budgets and international investments.
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The Domino Effect: From Gulf Budgets to U.S. Factories
A one-month revenue shock would force Gulf governments to tap their sovereign wealth funds and reconsider spending priorities. The most vulnerable items on the budget would be new, large-scale international commitments—precisely the kind of “mega-deals” announced with the U.S. in recent years.
These multi-billion-dollar agreements for defense equipment (like fighter jets and missile systems) and industrial projects are paid in installments over many years. A cash crunch would likely lead Gulf states to:
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Delay payments and stretch out delivery schedules.
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Quietly reduce the number of planes or systems actually ordered.
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Postpone major investment tranches in U.S. infrastructure or technology ventures.
For American defense contractors and their workers, this translates to factory slowdowns, uncertain order books, and a direct link between Middle East stability and their job security. The political narrative of a historic, guaranteed economic partnership would quickly collide with the reality of geopolitical risk.
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The Global Spillover: Higher Prices and Lasting Fear
The impact would extend far beyond the Persian Gulf:
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Soaring Global Oil & Gas Prices: With millions of barrels suddenly absent, oil prices would spike, likely well above $100 per barrel. This would trigger higher costs for transportation, manufacturing, and electricity worldwide, fueling inflation and economic uncertainty.
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Permanent Risk Premium: The shipping and insurance industries would be transformed. Even after reopening, insurers would charge massively higher premiums for Gulf voyages, and some shipowners would avoid the region entirely. This “risk tax” would make energy permanently more expensive to transport.
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A Blow to Investor Confidence: A closure would prove the Persian Gulf’s economic lifeline can be severed. International investors would demand higher returns for projects in the region, and credit agencies might reassess the risk profiles of Persian Gulf nations, making it more costly for them to borrow money.
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Conclusion: A Stress Test with Long-Term Consequences
A 30-day closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be a devastating stress test, not a total collapse. Persian Gulf Arab nations have the savings to manage a single month of crisis. However, it would ruthlessly expose the fragility of the global energy system and the conditional nature of multi-trillion-dollar international deals.
It would demonstrate that the grand economic agreements signed between the U.S. and the Persian Gulf are not ironclad guarantees. Their fulfillment is entirely dependent on the uninterrupted flow of oil and gas through a narrow, vulnerable stretch of water. If such disruptions were to recur, the foundation of this high-stakes economic partnership would begin to crack, forcing a global recalculation of risk, investment, and diplomacy.